ELPAC Report January 2001

The ELPAC Report January 2002

2002 A Pivotal Year?
Next Congress Doesn't Look Good for English

It's too early to know the shape of the 2002 elections, but we can tell that there will be some interesting campaigns. Democrats will fight hard to retain the Senate and capture the House of Representatives. Redistricting will likely reduce the number of English supporters in Congress. There should be English initiatives in at least two States.

U.S. Senate:

Democrats now control the Senate with a razor-thin margin of 50 votes (Vermont's Jim Jeffords became an Independent last year). They are using that bully pulpit to wage war on President Bush and the Republicans. They will not lose that edge calmly.

Both Democrats and Republicans have predicted Senate gains for their party. 20 Republican and 14 Democrat seats are up during this election cycle. The pattern emerging so far, however, is for promising candidates of both parties to decline to run. In Louisiana, for example, where first-term Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu was thought to be quite vulnerable (she won her seat amidst substantial election fraud controversies), some likely powerful challengers have decided not to challenge her bulging campaign war chest.

The biggest stories are the retirements of prominent Republicans Strom Thurmond of South Carolina, Jesse Helms of North Carolina and Phil Gramm of Texas. All are staunch conservatives and it is unlikely that their replacements will be as strong supporters of English. Watch for the media to cover Elizabeth Dole's campaign in No. Carolina.

In New Hampshire, there is a three-way race shaping up. Incumbent Bob Smith briefly left the Republican Party a few years ago, and it now appears that he will have a stubborn challenge in the Republican primary; the winner of that race will face popular Governor Jeanne Shaheen in November.

U.S. House of Representatives:

The outlook for the elections for the U.S. House is even murkier than for the Senate. The margin of power with the Democrats, though not quite as narrow as in the Senate, is still too close for comfort for the Republicans. Both parties are trying to rally their faithful with appeals based on that narrow margin. As in most election years, however, the number of House races that are truly competitive is only a couple of dozen out of the more than 400 seats.

The biggest news in House races is likely to be redistricting, the process following each Census of the U.S. population, which reallocates seats between and within States. This year redistricting is going to hurt English language support in Congress. Oklahoma, for example, will lose a seat, with the likeliest loss going to the Tulsa seat vacated by the retirement of Republican Cong. Steve Largent. Since the new holder of that seat, John Sullivan, is a staunch supporter of the English language, redistricting in Oklahoma is likely to reduce the number of English supporters in the House.

The same is true in Georgia, where a Democrat legislature has pit Republican English supporters Cong. Bob Barr and John Linder against each other for the same seat. And again in California, long-time supporter Republican Cong. Steve Horn was forced to retire when his seat was eliminated by a Democratic legislature to make way for a new Democratic seat expected to be filled by a Hispanic candidate (current Cong. Loretta Sanchez's sister is a front-runner). Unfortunately, none of the seat changes from redistricting seem to be hurting long-time opponents of English, meaning that redistricting will likely be a substantial loss for English support in Congress.

One interesting change in the upcoming House of Representatives will come from the likely change in the Republican leadership. Current House Majority Leader Dick Armey of Texas is retiring, and his likely successor is fellow Texas Republican House Whip Tom DeLay, with DeLay's deputy Roy Blunt of Missouri moving up to take over as Republican Whip. Democrats love to attack DeLay, but have had trouble making the public reject him; DeLay is a cunning and capable leader, who rarely makes the kind of verbal gaffes which got Armey in trouble. The effect for English: DeLay should be much more active in support of English than the more scholarly Armey. But with reduced English-language support from redistricting, even DeLay may not be inclined to move favorable legislation soon.

English supporters will be eagerly watching some campaigns to see if English language issues are brought forward. Two of the elections in 2001 featured English-language issues: John Sullivan won his seat from Oklahoma because of his English support, while Gunner DeLay (a cousin of Tom DeLay) lost his bid in Arkansas.

Initiatives:

Pro-English initiatives should be on the ballot in both Colorado and Massachusetts, although court challenges could take one or both from the voters. Both initiatives are bilingual education reform, similar to the California and Arizona initiatives which have helped kids in both those States. Both are sponsored by local Hispanic educators who want kids to learn English and both are supported by Ron Unz, the software entrepreneur behind the earlier two initiatives.