ELPAC Report June 2002

The ELPAC Report June 2002

Close Senate Races This Fall
Could Change Control

Some of the closest and most important elections in this busy election year will be for U.S. Senate seats from small states. That means that control of the U.S. Senate is still very much up for grabs, with Republicans struggling frantically to regain control, while Democrats squirm at the prospect of yielding hard-won power.

The closest race is in South Dakota, where Democratic Senator Tim Johnson is fighting for his political life against Republican Congressman John Thune. Fewer than 10,000 votes may decide this race, and national political leaders know it. National heavyweight politicians, like President Bush and Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, have brought big money and big names into the fracas. Polls show the combatants only a few points apart, with the "undecided" voters - crucial in any election -- only a tiny group.

This is just the type of targeted election that ELPAC loves to influence. Unlike other pro- English organizations, ELPAC can actively campaign for (or against) candidates for federal offices. Unlike most political action committees, however, ELPAC generally spends its limited funds on direct contact with voters. We specialize in tipping the balance in close elections, and have done so for almost twenty years.

Though Thune is not a staunch supporter of English (rating only a "B" grade in prior years, and yielding to Bush Administration pleas not to support the Istook Amendment to "defund" multilingual government), he is a far better choice than Johnson, who has consistently voted against the ELPAC position over the years on a variety of bills.

The South Dakota Senate campaign is a target for ELPAC. ELPAC will begin a direct voter contact campaign this summer, with officials visiting South Dakota as early as June to assess prospects for further activity.

There will be similar close contests in other small states, such as New Hampshire, where Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen faces the winner of a brutal Republican primary between Senator Bob Smith (who briefly became an Independent) and Representative John Sununu. In Arkansas, Republican Senator Tim Hutchinson is facing popular Democratic Attorney General Mark Pryor. And in Colorado, GOP Senator Wayne Allard will meet Democratic former U.S. Attorney Tom Strickland.

Other important close Senate races include toss-ups in Minnesota and Missouri. In Minnesota, Democratic Senator Paul Wellstone, one of the Senate's most unabashed liberals, is being challenged by Republican former St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman. In Missouri, Democratic Senator Jean Carnahan, who won the seat of her deceased husband, faces GOP former Congressman Jim Talent. Neither Wellstone nor Carnahan have supported English; Talent has supported some pro-English legislation.

ELPAC officials will visit Minnesota this summer to examine the situation in that campaign.