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Watch for Fierce State Battles Observers expect nearly half the states to host vigorous battles for partisan control of their legislatures this November. In some states, control is as close as three legislative seats. This is the third straight election in which power in state legislatures has been so tenuous. Some observers credit the closeness of these elections to increasing partisanship and polarization of the electorate. Others say that the Republican party, after years out of power, is now regaining some balance. Colorado is an example: the state Senate had been in Republican hands until 2000, when the Democrats took over. The Republicans took the Senate back in 2002, but with only an 18-17 majority. The same is true in Tennessee, where Democrats have an 18-15 majority in the Senate, and in Oregon, where the Senate is evenly split at 15. In Washington, the Senate is 25-24 Republican, and Democrats hold the House by six votes. The effect of these close races is to nationalize politics at the state level. The national political parties are spending more than ever on legislative battles, particularly in the states with close races. As a result, some local elections debate national issues and every seat won or lost is viewed as a referendum on the relative power of the two major parties. If there are going to be national trends on Election Night, they may well show up in state legislative elections as well as on the national maps. 
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The
ELPAC Report